China-Philippines Standoff: David And Goliath Both Stumble In Island Dispute
Op-Ed: The Philippines has overreacted in the
ongoing dispute between Manila and Beijing, looking to build a regional
coalition against China in claims over territory in the South China Sea. Still,
Beijing must learn to manage the "small powers" in a smarter way.
By Patrick
M. Cronin
THIS
month’s maritime standoff between China and the Philippines in the South China
Sea isn’t the first time the region’s navies have gone toe-to-toe. But while
past tensions revolved around resources under the ocean floor, this most recent
event is part of a growing strategic rivalry pitting Chinese power against the
United States and its East Asian
allies. How Washington responds
may determine the prospects for continued peace in the Pacific. The latest crisis arose after the
pocket-size Philippine Navy, with an old United States Coast Guard cutter as its
new flagship, tried to apprehend Chinese fishermen it claimed were operating
illegally near the Scarborough Shoal. China then sent two surveillance vessels — part
of a recent effort to protect its claims in the East and South China Seas — to
block the Philippine ship.
The U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of peace
and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region, but it will confront difficult
challenges between now and 2025 that could greatly affect its future.
In The
China Challenge: Military, Economic and Energy Choices Facing the U.S.-Japan
Alliance, released in advance of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko
Noda’s visit to the United States, Dr. Patrick Cronin, Paul Giarra, Zachary
Hosford and Daniel Katz argue that the United States and Japan must address a
host of defense, economic and energy security issues over the next decade if the
alliance is to maintain its power as China continues to rise.
The authors conclude that “Whether a powerful
U.S.-Japan alliance will endure into the next decade and beyond chiefly depends
on how well Washington and Tokyo deal with major military, economic and energy
challenges. Although each dimension of power is complex, basic policy choices
will require coming to grips with the challenge and opportunity posed by a
rising China."
By Robert D. Kaplan
As the world moves into the second decade of the
21st century, a new power rivalry is taking shape between India and China,
Asia's two behemoths in terms of territory, population and richness of
civilization. India's recent successful launch of a long-range missile able to
hit Beijing and Shanghai with nuclear weapons is the latest sign of this
development. This is a rivalry born
completely of high-tech geopolitics, creating a core dichotomy between two
powers whose own geographical expansion patterns throughout history have rarely
overlapped or interacted with each other. Despite the limited war fought between
the two countries on their Himalayan border 50 years ago, this competition has
relatively little long-standing historical or ethnic animosity behind
it….Because India's population will surpass that of China in 2030 or so, even as
India's population will get gray at a slower rate than that of China, India may
in relative terms have a brighter future. As inefficient as India's democratic
system is, it does not face a fundamental problem of legitimacy like China's
authoritarian system very well might.
The Bo Xilai saga of power, wealth, corruption, and
murder has brought the issue of China’s princelings (offspring of Communist
Party’s leaders) to the top of international discourse on China. But Bo's
privileged rise is not the norm for the contemporary Communist Party. Three underlying assumptions about the
princelings drive the noisy speculations about Chinese politics by many
mainstream commentators: The princelings form a powerful interest group, akin to
a political aristocracy, that exerts decisive influence on China’s political
system; their corruption is enormous and sapping away China’s national strength;
and their privileges of birth are so vast that they are undermining the party’s
legitimacy and destabilizing Chinese society as a whole. Such assumptions are
disconnected from reality and need to be debunked.
My
Take – I
mostly think this is a lot of spin, much like those offspring of famous actors
who became famous actors themselves, all the while claiming that it was a lot
harder to have success in Hollywood because they had a famous parent. Baloney! They had the contacts and an
understanding of the business. I don’t
have a problem with that, I just hate it that they won’t admit that they got
where they are because of nepotism…and the same is true in China. Why do I say that? Because people are people; and people do the
same things other people have done all throughout the history of all
peoples…..everywhere!
By
Iain
Mills
As Beijing prepares for a once-in-a-decade change
of leadership, the ouster of Bo Xilai and a series of significant financial
reforms have been widely seen as signs that reformist elements within the
Chinese government are in the ascendency. This analysis may be correct, but it
needs to be tempered with a broader look at the Chinese political and policy
landscape, which shows that reforms still lag in multiple key areas and that
progressive signals are so far limited to the financial sector. The position of
the army, a key political constituent, also remains unclear. The political intrigue surrounding the
removal of Bo
from the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) and the arrest of his wife on suspicion of involvement in the murder of a
British businessman has captivated the global media. As significant, it has been
accompanied by a series of encouraging and previously delayed financial market
reforms that point to a more progressive position emerging in
government.
By Rich
Lowry
China-envying New
York Times columnist Thomas Friedman likes to muse about how wonderful it would
be if the United States could be like China for a day.
The
scandal engulfing former rising star Bo Xilai, the cashiered Communist Party
boss of the city of Chongqing, suggests how this magical day might go down. A
popular governor who rose to prominence based on his anti-corruption campaign
while illicitly enriching himself would fall from grace. His wife would be
accused of murdering a foreign businessman. His security chief, whom he relied
upon to run an extensive spying operation on potential foes, would seek asylum
at a foreign consulate, fearing for his life. State and federal security forces
would have a standoff outside the consulate. The entire nation would become
obsessed with the case, but the government would prevent anyone from searching
the Internet for information about it. Everyone would assume that the government
would control the political fallout by arranging a nice show trial for the
disgraced governor.
In
September 2010, after Japan arrested a Chinese fishing boat captain in disputed
waters in the East China Sea, Beijing allegedly retaliated by holding back
shipments to Tokyo of rare earths, a group of 17 elements used in high-tech
products. Arcane names such as cerium, dysprosium, and lanthanum -- elements
that populate the bottom of the periodic table and whose unique properties make
them ideal materials in the batteries that power iPhones and electric vehicles
-- suddenly commanded global attention. It mattered little whether Beijing
actually carried through with the threat (reports are murky), the damage was
already done: The world had awoken to the fact that overreliance on China for
rare-earths supplies could put the international high-tech supply chain at
risk.
Friday, March 30, 2012
If there is one truth that has accompanied the
downfall of Bo Xilai, the prominent Chinese official who was removed from his
post on March 15, it is that every revelation prompts more questions. The story
is far from over, and this year’s leadership transition process, which the
Chinese Communist Party hopes to present as smooth and orderly, is likely to be
laden with surprises and intrigue. That much could certainly be gathered from
the latest development, reported Monday by the Wall Street Journal, that the
U.K. has asked China to investigate last year’s death of a British businessman
who had ties to Bo. The newspaper reported that Neil Heywood was found dead in a
Chongqing hotel room in November, and local authorities said he died of
“excessive alcohol consumption” and quickly cremated his body. But friends said
he didn’t drink, raising questions. Former Chongqing police chief Wang Lijun
reported his suspicions about Heywood’s death to Bo, triggering a fallout with
his boss, the Journal reported. The paper also said that Wang had claimed
Heywood was involved in a business dispute with Bo’s wife, Gu Kailai.
Children of the Revolution: The History China's New Leaders Won't Confront
Not only did the now-disgraced Bo Xilai revive Cultural Revolution songs in Chongqing, where he was the Communist Party committee chair, his dramatic political downfall seemed to have ignited a renewed interest in the cultural revolution, that ignominious decade in modern Chinese history. Much of this new interest came from Premier Wen Jiabao's surprising comments at the conclusion of China's National People's Congress, in which he warned about history repeating itself if reforms are not carried out. But it is more than just Wen's words. The new cohort of leaders -- Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, and Bo Xilai too -- are all children of that revolution, having watched their families and communities torn apart by brutish and senseless politics. Despite their pedigrees and "royal" backgrounds, both Xi and Bo's fathers were publicly humiliated in "struggle sessions" that sought to instill ideological purity, whatever that meant. Families and friends turned on each other. Suspicions pervaded society and trust became a public scarcity. To give some sense of what transpired, these incredible photos of young Bo Yibo (Bo's father) and Xi Zhongxun (Xi's father) speak volumes:
China's "Rare Earths", and the Hypocrisy of the Obama Administration
By John Tamny
As is well known now, the Obama administration recently joined the EU and Japan in a lawsuit filed at the World Trade Organization over China’s alleged restrictions on the export of rare earth elements. For those who’ve properly ignored what until now should have been a non-story, “rare earths” are metals essential for the production of everything from smart phones, to hybrid cars, to military equipment.
Poorest Chinese See Better Access to Food, Shelter
By Steve Crabtree and Rajesh Srinivasan
Improvement coincides with economic recovery, poverty reduction programs - Although income inequality remains high in China, Gallup trends show the poorest Chinese are struggling less to afford life's most basic needs. In 2011, 6% of Chinese in the poorest one-fifth of the population said they did not have enough money to buy food in the past year, down from 23% in 2008…..The ability of low-income and rural Chinese to afford food and shelter is likely tied to recovery from the global economic crisis. China's rural migrant laborers -- who typically hold low-income jobs in the cities -- were among the hardest hit in the recession, as they tended to be the first to be laid off. However, these trends may also have been influenced by the Chinese government's concerted efforts to avoid social unrest among those at the lowest end of the income distribution. Poverty-reduction programs -- including a rural subsistence allowance and subsidies to offset rising food prices for poor families -- have been common in recent years.
My Take – What! Income disparity and lack of the necessities for large numbers of the population in a socialist society? Surely not in the “worker’s paradise”! Oh well…when you consider that Mao and his henchmen deliberately starved over 30 million of his own people to death by selling the food they needed to survive in order to buy arms. We really do need to get this. Leftists really do hate everyone! Don’t judge them by their words. Judge them by their actions. Judge them by the socialist monsters of the 20th century, who when they took power, deliberately murdered over 100 million people; many of them were their own people. Nobody hates like a leftie! History is foundational to rational thinking and understanding. Not the philosophical musings and mutterings used by many today, but the actual events and outcomes.
China 'laws' contradict themselves
Frank Ching
Children of the Revolution: The History China's New Leaders Won't Confront
Not only did the now-disgraced Bo Xilai revive Cultural Revolution songs in Chongqing, where he was the Communist Party committee chair, his dramatic political downfall seemed to have ignited a renewed interest in the cultural revolution, that ignominious decade in modern Chinese history. Much of this new interest came from Premier Wen Jiabao's surprising comments at the conclusion of China's National People's Congress, in which he warned about history repeating itself if reforms are not carried out. But it is more than just Wen's words. The new cohort of leaders -- Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, and Bo Xilai too -- are all children of that revolution, having watched their families and communities torn apart by brutish and senseless politics. Despite their pedigrees and "royal" backgrounds, both Xi and Bo's fathers were publicly humiliated in "struggle sessions" that sought to instill ideological purity, whatever that meant. Families and friends turned on each other. Suspicions pervaded society and trust became a public scarcity. To give some sense of what transpired, these incredible photos of young Bo Yibo (Bo's father) and Xi Zhongxun (Xi's father) speak volumes:
China's "Rare Earths", and the Hypocrisy of the Obama Administration
By John Tamny
As is well known now, the Obama administration recently joined the EU and Japan in a lawsuit filed at the World Trade Organization over China’s alleged restrictions on the export of rare earth elements. For those who’ve properly ignored what until now should have been a non-story, “rare earths” are metals essential for the production of everything from smart phones, to hybrid cars, to military equipment.
Poorest Chinese See Better Access to Food, Shelter
By Steve Crabtree and Rajesh Srinivasan
Improvement coincides with economic recovery, poverty reduction programs - Although income inequality remains high in China, Gallup trends show the poorest Chinese are struggling less to afford life's most basic needs. In 2011, 6% of Chinese in the poorest one-fifth of the population said they did not have enough money to buy food in the past year, down from 23% in 2008…..The ability of low-income and rural Chinese to afford food and shelter is likely tied to recovery from the global economic crisis. China's rural migrant laborers -- who typically hold low-income jobs in the cities -- were among the hardest hit in the recession, as they tended to be the first to be laid off. However, these trends may also have been influenced by the Chinese government's concerted efforts to avoid social unrest among those at the lowest end of the income distribution. Poverty-reduction programs -- including a rural subsistence allowance and subsidies to offset rising food prices for poor families -- have been common in recent years.
My Take – What! Income disparity and lack of the necessities for large numbers of the population in a socialist society? Surely not in the “worker’s paradise”! Oh well…when you consider that Mao and his henchmen deliberately starved over 30 million of his own people to death by selling the food they needed to survive in order to buy arms. We really do need to get this. Leftists really do hate everyone! Don’t judge them by their words. Judge them by their actions. Judge them by the socialist monsters of the 20th century, who when they took power, deliberately murdered over 100 million people; many of them were their own people. Nobody hates like a leftie! History is foundational to rational thinking and understanding. Not the philosophical musings and mutterings used by many today, but the actual events and outcomes.
China 'laws' contradict themselves
Frank Ching
On March 5, the day the 2012 session of China's
National People's Congress opened, Premier Wen Jiabao promised to enforce the
law “in both letter and spirit, respect and uphold the sanctity of the
Constitution and laws, and govern in strict accordance with the laws.” He also
said: “We will resolutely rectify the problems of laws not being abided by or
fully enforced, lawbreakers not being prosecuted, uncivilized law enforcement,
dereliction and neglect of duty, and corrupt practices in law enforcement.”… So
when the premier spoke of laws not being abided by and lawbreakers not being
prosecuted, he was in a true sense speaking of the failings not of the
government but of the party. China is a country where there is no rule of law,
where the judiciary is not independent and where conscientious lawyers struggle
hard to discharge their fiduciary duty to their clients. According to the
Justice Ministry, all new lawyers must within three months of acquiring licenses
swear an oath of loyalty to the Communist Party, regardless of whether they are
party members or not…. Since the government is led by the party, swearing an
oath of loyalty to the party presumably means that whenever lawyers are
defending clients being prosecuted by the government, they are required to put
the government's interests first. This means that the accused are effectively
being deprived of their right of legal representation.
China’s Reformers: MIA
By Russell Leigh-Moses
So what happened to China’s reformers? With the removal of Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai earlier this month, the hope in many circles was that the Leftists he represented were a spent political force. Now was the time for China’s reformist Right— the intellectuals and activists and cadres who celebrated direct elections in Wukan a few weeks back, and have been advocating a transparent and accountable policy-making process – to step in and take control. Like so many political tales in China these days, the reality on the ground has quickly killed off those hopes….. No one should be stunned by the Left’s staying power, or the inability of the Right to simply move into the gap created by the supposed folding of the Chongqing model. Reformers have been weakened by nearly a decade of suffocation by a hardline Center bent on campaigning for “social stability.” Activists can post critiques in the Chinese social media, but they’ve been barred from real political dialogue with the party for the same reason: Many reformers and intellectuals are by now largely discredited because they have proved far better at complaining than they have been at putting forth realistic alternatives.
My Take – I have always been fascinated by this thinking. The Chinese government took over Hong Kong many years ago from the British. What did they do with it? Pretty much left it alone to stand as a shining beacon of capitalism. As a result that is where a huge amount of their economic capital is created. So with this as the template what alternatives do they need? Nothing is ever as it seems in China!
China’s stability gambit
By Stephen S. Roach
China’s Reformers: MIA
By Russell Leigh-Moses
So what happened to China’s reformers? With the removal of Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai earlier this month, the hope in many circles was that the Leftists he represented were a spent political force. Now was the time for China’s reformist Right— the intellectuals and activists and cadres who celebrated direct elections in Wukan a few weeks back, and have been advocating a transparent and accountable policy-making process – to step in and take control. Like so many political tales in China these days, the reality on the ground has quickly killed off those hopes….. No one should be stunned by the Left’s staying power, or the inability of the Right to simply move into the gap created by the supposed folding of the Chongqing model. Reformers have been weakened by nearly a decade of suffocation by a hardline Center bent on campaigning for “social stability.” Activists can post critiques in the Chinese social media, but they’ve been barred from real political dialogue with the party for the same reason: Many reformers and intellectuals are by now largely discredited because they have proved far better at complaining than they have been at putting forth realistic alternatives.
My Take – I have always been fascinated by this thinking. The Chinese government took over Hong Kong many years ago from the British. What did they do with it? Pretty much left it alone to stand as a shining beacon of capitalism. As a result that is where a huge amount of their economic capital is created. So with this as the template what alternatives do they need? Nothing is ever as it seems in China!
China’s stability gambit
By Stephen S. Roach
While it is easy to get caught up in the swirling
tales of palace intrigue that have followed, I suspect that Bo’s removal holds
at least one far deeper meaning.
The first principle that I learned when I started focusing on China in the late 1990s is that nothing is more important to the Chinese than stability - whether economic, social or political. Given centuries of turmoil in China, today’s leaders will do everything in their power to preserve stability. Whenever I have doubts about a potential Chinese policy shift, I examine the options through the stability lens. It has worked like a charm.
My Take – No matter what the author says; nothing is what it seems in China. Here are some of the basics. China has the world’s largest population of over one billion people. They have a two child policy and as a result most of the babies that are aborted are female. That leaves a huge gap in the male female relationship. There are a whole lot of young men in China that cannot find a wife. It is unlikely that they are happy about that. The country is huge, but most of the nation is either desert or mountains with small numbers of people living there. The vast majority of that 1+ billion population lives in a area no bigger than everything East of the Mississippi River in the U.S. Their banking system is in trouble and the possibility of economic crisis is very real. Those are the realities of China. What do dictators do when crises creates unstable populations? They start a war. Nothing is ever what it seems in China.
China’s Death-Row Reality Show
Jonathan Mirsky
The first principle that I learned when I started focusing on China in the late 1990s is that nothing is more important to the Chinese than stability - whether economic, social or political. Given centuries of turmoil in China, today’s leaders will do everything in their power to preserve stability. Whenever I have doubts about a potential Chinese policy shift, I examine the options through the stability lens. It has worked like a charm.
My Take – No matter what the author says; nothing is what it seems in China. Here are some of the basics. China has the world’s largest population of over one billion people. They have a two child policy and as a result most of the babies that are aborted are female. That leaves a huge gap in the male female relationship. There are a whole lot of young men in China that cannot find a wife. It is unlikely that they are happy about that. The country is huge, but most of the nation is either desert or mountains with small numbers of people living there. The vast majority of that 1+ billion population lives in a area no bigger than everything East of the Mississippi River in the U.S. Their banking system is in trouble and the possibility of economic crisis is very real. Those are the realities of China. What do dictators do when crises creates unstable populations? They start a war. Nothing is ever what it seems in China.
China’s Death-Row Reality Show
Jonathan Mirsky
Until it was taken off the air last December, one
of the most popular television programs in China’s Henan province, which has a
population of 100 million, was “Interviews Before Execution.” … Ding Yu would
interview …condemned murderer who was about to face a firing squad or a lethal
injection.….. There are 55 different crimes (recently reduced from 68), ranging
from tax evasion to unspecified “crimes against the state,” that now qualify as
capital offenses. The number of people executed for committing these crimes is a
state secret. ….Ding Yu says that her object in doing the interviews is to show
harsh punishment for evil deeds, and to urge viewers to be “reasonable and
tolerant.” By the time they appear on her program, Ding’s capital offenders have
gone through the Chinese justice system with no presumption of innocence and
been sentenced, often in a quick court-room procedure without legal
representation or witnesses…. She asks the convicted killers to apologize on
camera. A man who stabbed his wife to death tells his daughter he is sorry for
killing her mother. The daughter, with her back to the camera, sees this. Such
scenes, says Ding Yu, “lift a stone from their [the murderers’] hearts.” Very
young children are shown in an orphanage for the offspring of murderers. They do
not speak of their parents’ crimes “because they are ashamed. “
By Rich Kozlovich
This list is from the web site Real Clear World. As you go through these you will find that all
persuasions are represented here, many of them I find ....well.... dumb,
however, that is what this site provides. It really is necessary to read all
sides of any issue if one is to understand the historicity. Everyone leaves
stuff out of their commentaries. Sometimes it is due to space, or it may be to
inclination; as in the inclination to paint their view in the best possible
light irrespective of what is factual. As you go through those links you are
interested in you will find that many of these commentaries are long and drawn
out, and a bit difficult to take. However they are at least worth scanning.
The one thing you will come away with is that the world is insane and its the
lunatics who are running the asylum. But remember.....there is no such thing as
a conspiracy!
The first four links are commentaries that I think
are worth exploring. The rest have been
broken down by geography and time of
publication. Some I have eliminated
because organizing this many days of links became too difficult. In future days there will be less links
organized in the same manner. And the answer to your question is; no I haven't
read them all. I have however scanned a large number of them, especially those
dealing with China. I have linked all of these to accommodate the tastes of my
readers.
Enjoy!
Commentaries,
My Picks
A Body, a Scandal and
China - Nicholas
Kristof, New York Times
U.S. and
China: Who Will Rule the Sky? -
Wang Xiaoxia, Economic Observer
What the West Doesn't Get About
China - Allen
Carlson, The Diplomat
China's Identity Crisis - Doug Saunders, Globe and Mail
Secrets Anonymous Should Steal from
China - Adam
Segal, Foreign Policy
Turkey and
China's Awkward Diplomacy -
Peter Lee, Asia Times
U.S. Cedes New Frontier to
China - Charles
Krauthammer, Washington Post
Don't Blame China for U.S. Trade
Deficit -
Yukon Huang, Bloomberg
World Is Raining on China's
Parade - Sophie
Richardson, Foreign Policy
Beijing's Lesson in Harmony - Frank Ching, Japan Times
Beijing's Lesson in Harmony - Frank Ching, Japan Times
India's Missile Fails to Rattle
China - Jason
Burke, The Guardian
China Breaks Its String of
Pearls
- Stefano Casertano, The
European
Saturday, October 27, 2012
By Rich Kozlovich
These next few articles are interesting in many
ways. First, we have to understand that
whenever you read anything about China you must see past what is written. China is a complicated country, with a long
profound history. There are a number of
things that we know are going on for sure that doesn’t come clear in these
articles.
China houses most of its population, which is one
quarter of the world’s population, in an area that is about the size of
everything east of the Mississippi River in the United States, and they are
ethnic Han. The rest of China is
sparsely populated and mostly occupied by other ethnic groups that hate the Han
and consider the central government illegitimate, and the general population has
grown to doubt the legitimacy of the central government as a result of all the
incompetence and corruption.
The government’s one child policy has created a
large male/female inbalance in the population as a result there isn’t enough
women to go around. This creates serious
social consequences and dissatisfaction.
Pollution is terrible and the government is spending huge amounts of
money to keep everyone working, including building cities that no one occupies,
and the banking system has troubles the government hides.
What is clear is the Chinese leadership is striving
for two things. Social and economic
stability and continued central control of all things in the hands of the
communist leadership…..and make no mistake about it….they’re still commies. So
what do dictatorships do to distract the population? They start a war! Only this is far more problematic than it was
decades ago. Who do they start a war
with?
Russia shares a huge border with China and there
have always been border disputes regarding ownership of certain areas. Russia has a large army that has a serious
problem with alcohol abuse, and a navy that is a rusting hulk. They also have a shrinking population which
is surrounded by former Soviet and client states that hate and distrust
them. Their big income for Russia was
energy and that may end as fraking in Europe is going to destroy that. They also have such massive corruption that,
like China, undermines the countries stability. However, Russia is still huge and attacking
it would require logistics and planning for a long range war; which I don’t
think the Chinese are wanting, and may not be capable of. Furthermore the Russians have a huge nuclear
arsenal and I am sure they would use it without hesitation and they could
totally destroy China. Plus this could potentially drag NATO and the UN into
it.
So who do you start a ruckus with? Japan, India or the Philippines? I say Japan.
Why?
There are a handful of tiny Islands off the coast
of China known as the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan which are barren
and uninhabited. These five islands
“encompass a grand total of seven square kilometers” and were won from the
Chinese in the first Sino-Japanese war of 1895.
But after 1968 the Chinese decided that they wanted them back; after it
was discovered “the islands may be sitting on top of huge oil and gas
reserves.”
This gives the Chinese a potentially legitimate
gripe, especially when you consider what the Japanese did to them in WWII and
were then the losers of that war. By
pushing this they then bring into play far more than these islands and its
potential wealth. They create a Munich
Moment. The real goal of the Chinese
government is to be the big dog in the South China Sea and ultimately all of
South East Asia. If they push this and
win; it seriously weakens American influence, militarily and economically. The rest of the countries in the area then
can be much more easily bullied into falling into line, including India and the
Philippines, and of course even Australia.
As you read the series of articles I have linked
think about all of this. But
remember…Nothing is ever as it seems in China.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Observations From the Back
Row Beyond the scandal lies a crisis at the heart of
China's legitimacy
Will Hutton
A Chinese Spring is inevitable if the party leadership doesn't reform itself - The house detention of top communist official Bo Xilai, until recently China's most popular politician, now stripped of his titles, while his ambitious lawyer wife, Gu Kailai, is charged with involvement in the alleged murder of ex-Harrovian British businessmen Neil Heywood, is a story with everything. The British class system meets the dark, internal labyrinths of the Chinese communist party to create China's biggest political scandal for decades. The Chinese state media are now in overdrive to portray Bo and Gu as an out-of-control, power-mad couple brought back within the rule of law by the wise, all-seeing party….. The revolution's leaders are long dead and they have been replaced by a competent if rotten administrative elite that looks more and more like the Confucian mandarinate the revolution overthrew….. The Soviet Union's leaders confronted similar dilemmas as they entered the early 1980s. After 60 years, revolutions lose their legitimacy and economic problems become intractable. The group around Gorbachev decided there was no option but acceleration of reform. China's new leadership, set to take over for another 10-year cycle in the autumn, will try to muddle through without much change. But Bo's challenge over legitimacy remains. If there is no change from the top, it will come from below. A Chinese spring is now very likely sometime in the next 10 years. That much we now know. We just don't know when.
Busting the myth of China’s property bubble
James Laurenceson
Five years on, the US economy remains sluggish after the bursting of a house-price bubble. - More recently, the focus has been on China — the world’s second-largest economy — and whether it too might be overwhelmed by a similar event. Reports of ‘ghost cities’ and of property developers facing bankruptcy have become commonplace. Some commentators have even asserted that the bubble may have already ‘popped’. The stakes are certainly high. The IMF notes that since 2007 China has contributed more — much more in fact — to world growth than any other country, and this is projected to remain the case into the foreseeable future. And Australia now has more to lose than most if China’s economy sours, given the Chinese construction sector is a significant source of demand for Australia’s natural resources.
Pipeline to Nowhere: The Beijing-Moscow Dance Continues
Stephen Blank
Negotiating and then building the proposed Russo-Chinese gas pipeline should be an easy win-win. Russia has enormous gas deposits in Western and Eastern Siberia; China has an omnivorous need for energy and the huge capital reserves that would be required to finance the operation…..Yet despite more than a decade of discussions and negotiations, there is no contract for a pipeline, and the prospect for one in the immediate future is at best uncertain. But that outcome is hardly set in stone. This episode, [reflects] Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s observations a few years ago about how politics are warping global energy markets…..This …illustrates what happens when political factors like a state-run corrupt monopoly essentially deprive a county of future investment and force it to borrow money from a potential customer, then accede to the customer’s stiff terms. Moscow’s games have ensured that very little Russian gas currently goes to South Korea or Japan, and that it makes very little money, relatively speaking, from those sales. Only China benefits from this situation, which continues to hobble Russia’s overall Asian policy. The saga of the pipeline to nowhere (so far) shows that China increasingly can force Russia to yield to it on major economic and political issues. If, as Bismarck said, alliances resemble the relationship between the horse and the rider, it is clear in this story who is riding whom.
Will Hutton
A Chinese Spring is inevitable if the party leadership doesn't reform itself - The house detention of top communist official Bo Xilai, until recently China's most popular politician, now stripped of his titles, while his ambitious lawyer wife, Gu Kailai, is charged with involvement in the alleged murder of ex-Harrovian British businessmen Neil Heywood, is a story with everything. The British class system meets the dark, internal labyrinths of the Chinese communist party to create China's biggest political scandal for decades. The Chinese state media are now in overdrive to portray Bo and Gu as an out-of-control, power-mad couple brought back within the rule of law by the wise, all-seeing party….. The revolution's leaders are long dead and they have been replaced by a competent if rotten administrative elite that looks more and more like the Confucian mandarinate the revolution overthrew….. The Soviet Union's leaders confronted similar dilemmas as they entered the early 1980s. After 60 years, revolutions lose their legitimacy and economic problems become intractable. The group around Gorbachev decided there was no option but acceleration of reform. China's new leadership, set to take over for another 10-year cycle in the autumn, will try to muddle through without much change. But Bo's challenge over legitimacy remains. If there is no change from the top, it will come from below. A Chinese spring is now very likely sometime in the next 10 years. That much we now know. We just don't know when.
Busting the myth of China’s property bubble
James Laurenceson
Five years on, the US economy remains sluggish after the bursting of a house-price bubble. - More recently, the focus has been on China — the world’s second-largest economy — and whether it too might be overwhelmed by a similar event. Reports of ‘ghost cities’ and of property developers facing bankruptcy have become commonplace. Some commentators have even asserted that the bubble may have already ‘popped’. The stakes are certainly high. The IMF notes that since 2007 China has contributed more — much more in fact — to world growth than any other country, and this is projected to remain the case into the foreseeable future. And Australia now has more to lose than most if China’s economy sours, given the Chinese construction sector is a significant source of demand for Australia’s natural resources.
Pipeline to Nowhere: The Beijing-Moscow Dance Continues
Stephen Blank
Negotiating and then building the proposed Russo-Chinese gas pipeline should be an easy win-win. Russia has enormous gas deposits in Western and Eastern Siberia; China has an omnivorous need for energy and the huge capital reserves that would be required to finance the operation…..Yet despite more than a decade of discussions and negotiations, there is no contract for a pipeline, and the prospect for one in the immediate future is at best uncertain. But that outcome is hardly set in stone. This episode, [reflects] Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s observations a few years ago about how politics are warping global energy markets…..This …illustrates what happens when political factors like a state-run corrupt monopoly essentially deprive a county of future investment and force it to borrow money from a potential customer, then accede to the customer’s stiff terms. Moscow’s games have ensured that very little Russian gas currently goes to South Korea or Japan, and that it makes very little money, relatively speaking, from those sales. Only China benefits from this situation, which continues to hobble Russia’s overall Asian policy. The saga of the pipeline to nowhere (so far) shows that China increasingly can force Russia to yield to it on major economic and political issues. If, as Bismarck said, alliances resemble the relationship between the horse and the rider, it is clear in this story who is riding whom.
By Rich Kozlovich Monday, April 30, 2012
Over the last few months I have been paying more than the usual attention to what has been going on in China, and to be honest, I have had trouble sorting it all out. Normally the patterns in life keep repeating, but the China paradigm has been difficult for me to see.
China has unique problems that most of the rest of the world doesn’t understand. First, they have a huge population (which India may soon overtake), a totalitarian government committed to unending growth, even to the point of building cities that are vacant, a banking system that has serious problems that may soon erupt, huge funding going to building up a massive military machine, and a population that is questioning the validity of a communist party run society.
The country is huge, but most of it isn't well inhabited because so much is mountainous, semi-desert or desert. That means that most of that huge population of one billion plus is living in an area about the size of everything east of the Mississippi River in the U.S.
Due to their insane rules on how many children a family can have, girls are aborted way more than boys. The end result is that there aren't enough girls to go around. Having thousands of deprived unhappy young men isn't a basis for a stable society.
Finally after reading all these ‘China’ experts I have found an article that clarifies this whole thing…for me at least. Please enjoy!Four Shocks That Could Change China
By Paul Roderick Gregory
In the past four months, the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) has experienced four shocks that could materially affect, if not eventually end, its “leading role” in Chinese society.
First, on December 13 of last year, a mob of villagers forced out local party leaders and the police and took control of the town of Wukan. Enraged by illegal land grabs and police brutality, the villagers installed their own representatives after gaining concessions from national authorities. The Wukan uprising is symbolic of the two hundred thousand mass protests reported for 2010.
Second, on February 27, a key government think tank issued its China 2030 report in conjunction with the World Bank. Rapid growth could only be sustained, the report argued, by giving free rein to the private sector and ending the preferential treatment of the state economy: The role of the government “needs to change fundamentally” from running the state sector to creating a rule of law and the other accoutrements of a market economy. A month later (on March 28), the state council approved a financial reform pilot experiment to legalize private financial institutions and allow private citizens to invest abroad.
China 2030 is an open warning that China’s vaunted state capitalism model cannot sustain growth and usher China to the next level. A faltering economy would pose an imminent threat to the CPC’s claim to its leading role........
Over the last few months I have been paying more than the usual attention to what has been going on in China, and to be honest, I have had trouble sorting it all out. Normally the patterns in life keep repeating, but the China paradigm has been difficult for me to see.
China has unique problems that most of the rest of the world doesn’t understand. First, they have a huge population (which India may soon overtake), a totalitarian government committed to unending growth, even to the point of building cities that are vacant, a banking system that has serious problems that may soon erupt, huge funding going to building up a massive military machine, and a population that is questioning the validity of a communist party run society.
The country is huge, but most of it isn't well inhabited because so much is mountainous, semi-desert or desert. That means that most of that huge population of one billion plus is living in an area about the size of everything east of the Mississippi River in the U.S.
Due to their insane rules on how many children a family can have, girls are aborted way more than boys. The end result is that there aren't enough girls to go around. Having thousands of deprived unhappy young men isn't a basis for a stable society.
Finally after reading all these ‘China’ experts I have found an article that clarifies this whole thing…for me at least. Please enjoy!Four Shocks That Could Change China
By Paul Roderick Gregory
In the past four months, the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) has experienced four shocks that could materially affect, if not eventually end, its “leading role” in Chinese society.
First, on December 13 of last year, a mob of villagers forced out local party leaders and the police and took control of the town of Wukan. Enraged by illegal land grabs and police brutality, the villagers installed their own representatives after gaining concessions from national authorities. The Wukan uprising is symbolic of the two hundred thousand mass protests reported for 2010.
Second, on February 27, a key government think tank issued its China 2030 report in conjunction with the World Bank. Rapid growth could only be sustained, the report argued, by giving free rein to the private sector and ending the preferential treatment of the state economy: The role of the government “needs to change fundamentally” from running the state sector to creating a rule of law and the other accoutrements of a market economy. A month later (on March 28), the state council approved a financial reform pilot experiment to legalize private financial institutions and allow private citizens to invest abroad.
China 2030 is an open warning that China’s vaunted state capitalism model cannot sustain growth and usher China to the next level. A faltering economy would pose an imminent threat to the CPC’s claim to its leading role........
By Rich KozlovichTuesday, April 3, 2012
There is an old term, “the inscrutable Oriental”! What does that mean and why? I have my own personal view about this. It is a cultural thing. The Chinese are not direct in coming to the point. They were more concerned with being “more tactful, [their] chief concern being to make the other fellow feel comfortable, to give him “face,” rather than to tell the truth. This comes from hundreds of years of Confucian thought and the need to get along in often crowded and uncomfortable surroundings.” We have the tendency to “find this tactfulness exaggerated and the emphasis on face irritating and incomprehensible.” Thus we have the tendency to find it means there is something going on in the background. And with the Chinese, there probably is. Much like Don Corleone…”never let anyone outside the family know what you are thinking.
Many years ago I read a book dealing with the old Chinese system of study known as “The Classics”, which was required in order to rise within the ranks of the Mandarin; the bureaucrats that ran the Empire. That created interesting paradigms within the Chinese government. If during some internal power struggle one were to openly attack on adversary it would be looked down upon by the rest of the leadership. But if you could get them downgraded cleverly, or even executed, without anyone being able to trace it to you…while at the same time making sure everyone knew you did it; it was looked on with favor. Although this system changed during the centuries; after all those centuries the training molded the thinking of the entire culture until became a cultural paradigm, no matter who was ruling. That hasn’t changed.
However, when Henry Kissinger (the guy that is supposed to be so smart) went to China he told Mao Tse Tung that the nice thing about this visit was that neither of them wanted anything from the other. Mao looked over at him and said; “If I didn't want something from you I wouldn't have invited you, and if you didn't want something from me you shouldn't have come." The only "face" Mao was concerned about was his own. He wouldn't even let his main henchman in mass murder, Chow En Lai, receive medical treatment to save his life. The thinking is that he didn't want any of his close associates to outlive him and spill the beans about his activities.
Now the Chinese leadership faces the same dilemma the Russians face. In order to maintain their socialist systems they have to keep repainting history in order to justify their existence. Although in Russia it is a bit different, the same party apparatchiks still run everything…even more incompetently than did the Soviets. There are even people in Russia who declare that Stalin really didn't kill all those people. I guess Hitler didn't kill all those Jews either.
In so many socialist tyrannies there seems to be a recurring theme. So many bodies turn up in mass graves that no one killed.
Coup Rumors Spur China to Hem In Social Networking Site
By IAN JOHNSON
China started a sweeping crackdown of its vibrant social networking media over the weekend, detaining six people, closing 16 Web sites and shutting off the comment function for two gigantic micro-blogs. The campaign, which was announced late Friday and put in place in stages through Saturday, was directly linked to the political instability that has gripped China since one of its most charismatic politicians, Bo Xilai, lost his post in mid-March. That spurred rumors of a coup, which the government-run Xinhua news agency cited as the reason for the measures. Xinhua quoted an official with the State Internet Information Office as saying that the sites had spread reports of “military vehicles entering Beijing and something wrong going on in Beijing.”…. In addition to the six detainees — whose names were not released — Xinhua said others were “admonished and educated” and had promised to “repent.”
Insight: China wrestles Mao's ghost after official's divisive fall
By Chris Buckley
Former Red Guard leader Tang Dahua says memories of the fanatical bloodshed that tore apart the southwestern Chinese city of Chongqing return to him with startling clarity. Decades after Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution made Chongqing a bloody ideological battleground, the riverside megacity, China's largest, is at the heart of a different political storm - one that has exposed rifts inside the ruling Communist Party after the ouster of the city's charismatic leader, Bo Xilai. Tang was a prominent leader in the late 1960s battles between Red Guard factions in Chongqing that killed many hundreds in ferocious fighting, and he dismissed the idea that the violence that ravaged China then could return. But Bo's downfall has exposed ideological fault lines in the government and the public that could trouble the party months before a delicate reshuffle of top leaders.
China’s Defence Budget 2012: An Analysis
Mandip Singh and Lalit Kumar
China’s Defence Budget for 2012 continues to follow anticipated trend lines in keeping with its plan of carrying out Revolution in Military Affairs in a calibrated, coordinated and comprehensive manner. The actual figures of the Chinese Defence budget continues to be a source of conjecture and no standard factors can assist in accurate prediction of the real expenditure. The allocation for 2012 appears to suggest that ‘it is business as usual’ for the PLA, although there are reports of a substantial rise in salaries and expenditure on improving the living standards even as it finds new ways to woo young men and women to join the PLA. It would be prudent to assume that the bulk of the monies will be directed at ensuring domination of the Asia- Pacific by developing its ‘ Anti-Access Area Denial’ strategies while building on a nascent expeditionary capability for power projection and protection of its interests globally. As far as India is concerned, we will see no let up in the momentum of infrastructure development in the TAR and the possible establishment of the PLA`s first base overseas in the Indian Ocean in the near future.
There is an old term, “the inscrutable Oriental”! What does that mean and why? I have my own personal view about this. It is a cultural thing. The Chinese are not direct in coming to the point. They were more concerned with being “more tactful, [their] chief concern being to make the other fellow feel comfortable, to give him “face,” rather than to tell the truth. This comes from hundreds of years of Confucian thought and the need to get along in often crowded and uncomfortable surroundings.” We have the tendency to “find this tactfulness exaggerated and the emphasis on face irritating and incomprehensible.” Thus we have the tendency to find it means there is something going on in the background. And with the Chinese, there probably is. Much like Don Corleone…”never let anyone outside the family know what you are thinking.
Many years ago I read a book dealing with the old Chinese system of study known as “The Classics”, which was required in order to rise within the ranks of the Mandarin; the bureaucrats that ran the Empire. That created interesting paradigms within the Chinese government. If during some internal power struggle one were to openly attack on adversary it would be looked down upon by the rest of the leadership. But if you could get them downgraded cleverly, or even executed, without anyone being able to trace it to you…while at the same time making sure everyone knew you did it; it was looked on with favor. Although this system changed during the centuries; after all those centuries the training molded the thinking of the entire culture until became a cultural paradigm, no matter who was ruling. That hasn’t changed.
However, when Henry Kissinger (the guy that is supposed to be so smart) went to China he told Mao Tse Tung that the nice thing about this visit was that neither of them wanted anything from the other. Mao looked over at him and said; “If I didn't want something from you I wouldn't have invited you, and if you didn't want something from me you shouldn't have come." The only "face" Mao was concerned about was his own. He wouldn't even let his main henchman in mass murder, Chow En Lai, receive medical treatment to save his life. The thinking is that he didn't want any of his close associates to outlive him and spill the beans about his activities.
Now the Chinese leadership faces the same dilemma the Russians face. In order to maintain their socialist systems they have to keep repainting history in order to justify their existence. Although in Russia it is a bit different, the same party apparatchiks still run everything…even more incompetently than did the Soviets. There are even people in Russia who declare that Stalin really didn't kill all those people. I guess Hitler didn't kill all those Jews either.
In so many socialist tyrannies there seems to be a recurring theme. So many bodies turn up in mass graves that no one killed.
Coup Rumors Spur China to Hem In Social Networking Site
By IAN JOHNSON
China started a sweeping crackdown of its vibrant social networking media over the weekend, detaining six people, closing 16 Web sites and shutting off the comment function for two gigantic micro-blogs. The campaign, which was announced late Friday and put in place in stages through Saturday, was directly linked to the political instability that has gripped China since one of its most charismatic politicians, Bo Xilai, lost his post in mid-March. That spurred rumors of a coup, which the government-run Xinhua news agency cited as the reason for the measures. Xinhua quoted an official with the State Internet Information Office as saying that the sites had spread reports of “military vehicles entering Beijing and something wrong going on in Beijing.”…. In addition to the six detainees — whose names were not released — Xinhua said others were “admonished and educated” and had promised to “repent.”
Insight: China wrestles Mao's ghost after official's divisive fall
By Chris Buckley
Former Red Guard leader Tang Dahua says memories of the fanatical bloodshed that tore apart the southwestern Chinese city of Chongqing return to him with startling clarity. Decades after Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution made Chongqing a bloody ideological battleground, the riverside megacity, China's largest, is at the heart of a different political storm - one that has exposed rifts inside the ruling Communist Party after the ouster of the city's charismatic leader, Bo Xilai. Tang was a prominent leader in the late 1960s battles between Red Guard factions in Chongqing that killed many hundreds in ferocious fighting, and he dismissed the idea that the violence that ravaged China then could return. But Bo's downfall has exposed ideological fault lines in the government and the public that could trouble the party months before a delicate reshuffle of top leaders.
China’s Defence Budget 2012: An Analysis
Mandip Singh and Lalit Kumar
China’s Defence Budget for 2012 continues to follow anticipated trend lines in keeping with its plan of carrying out Revolution in Military Affairs in a calibrated, coordinated and comprehensive manner. The actual figures of the Chinese Defence budget continues to be a source of conjecture and no standard factors can assist in accurate prediction of the real expenditure. The allocation for 2012 appears to suggest that ‘it is business as usual’ for the PLA, although there are reports of a substantial rise in salaries and expenditure on improving the living standards even as it finds new ways to woo young men and women to join the PLA. It would be prudent to assume that the bulk of the monies will be directed at ensuring domination of the Asia- Pacific by developing its ‘ Anti-Access Area Denial’ strategies while building on a nascent expeditionary capability for power projection and protection of its interests globally. As far as India is concerned, we will see no let up in the momentum of infrastructure development in the TAR and the possible establishment of the PLA`s first base overseas in the Indian Ocean in the near future.
By Tom
Wright Thursday, October 18, 2012
Those in China that consider India’s economic
success as a negative have almost doubled in the same period. Only 23% of Indians term their nation’s
relationship with China as one of cooperation; only 24% think China’s growing
economy is a good thing, Pew research shows…….. Despite increased trade, New
Delhi remains wary of China’s moves to extend its maritime presence in the
Indian Ocean, while Beijing has complained about India’s commercial activities in the South
China Sea……Beijing continues to help Pakistan develop its civil nuclear program
at a time when other countries, including the U.S., have refused to do so
because of Islamabad’s history of nuclear proliferation.
My
Take –
This whole thing is symptomatic of the problem with the Chinese government. They have a huge economy that may not be
real. They have a huge military that may
not be effective. They have competent
economic neighbors in Japan, India and the Philippines, all of whom China has
made threatening moves, that they don’t really want to compete with because they
may not be capable. They have a central
planning system that is clueless and yet they were smart enough to leave Hong
Kong alone, which became a huge money machine for the government, but they won't
allow the nation to go down that path because it would destroy the elitists that
run the country. They have serious internal problems with the general
population, many of whom consider the central government illegitimate and
staggeringly corrupt.
The
problem still remains that has been foundational of all of their problems since
Mao. They’re still commies! They think like commies, they act like
commies, ergo, they’re commies, and commies are now and have always been
aggressive, unreasonable, murderous, failures at basic economics....and
staggeringly corrupt.
Pay
attention to this whole South East Asia economic situation. There is a reason China is expanding it's
navy, including an air craft carrier.
Commies don't carry a big stick for image. There are serious internal and/or external
events in the offing with China that will impact the whole world. RK
By Rich Kozlovich, Wednesday, November 30, 2011
What's this? China going bankrupt faster than U.S.?
What's this? China going bankrupt faster than U.S.?
China is going broke faster than the U.S.,
according to economic planner Kirk Elliott – who is making this point the
lynchpin of a live webinar he's conducting for WND viewers today at 12:30 p.m.
Eastern. Here are some shocking facts Elliott discusses in a WND column today on
which he will expound during the webinar
• China's debt is about $36 trillion yuan (or $5.68
trillion USD).
• China's officially published interest rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated.
• Excess capacity in the economy and private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity.
• China's officially published GDP growth of 9 percent is fabricated.
• China's taxes are too high.
• China's officially published interest rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated.
• Excess capacity in the economy and private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity.
• China's officially published GDP growth of 9 percent is fabricated.
• China's taxes are too high.
(Please
go to the article to get his explanations for these bullet points.
RK)Elliott concludes:
"There is an economic tsunami about to engulf China, and because of the size of
China's economy and its manufacturing might, the impact of the tsunami will be
felt far and wide. The United States will feel it in the form of inflationary
pressures that we can't afford right now. Periphery countries to China may feel
its military might or cower to political pressure as governments that run out of
money start to do irrational things (look at the United States, or Greece, or
the European Union)."
By Didi Tang on October 27, 2012
Thousands of people in an eastern Chinese city
clashed with police during a protest over the proposed expansion of a
petrochemical factory that they fear would spew pollution and damage public
health, townspeople said Saturday.
It was the latest in a string of protests in China
this year over fears of health risks from industrial projects, as members of the
rising middle class become more outspoken against environmentally risky projects
in their areas.
Past protests have targeted a coal-fired power
plant in southern China, a waste-water pipeline in eastern China, and a copper
plant in west-central China.
The Zhenhai district government in Zhejiang
province's Ningbo city said in a statement Saturday that "a few" people
disrupted public order by staging sit-ins, unfurling banners, distributing
fliers and obstructing roads. It said the proposed project is under evaluation
and the public has opportunities to offer its input….."Government officials are only concerned
about GDP and climbing up their career ladders, which is incompatible with local
residents' desire to have a pleasant life," he said. "The officials will move on
after a few years, but we will be living here generation after generation. It is
irresponsible to build this project." To Read More….
My
Take – I
know most will not see the hidden importance of the statement;
"Government officials are only concerned about GDP
and climbing up their career ladders, which is incompatible with local
residents' desire to have a pleasant life,".
But those of us who remember the Korean War remember the massed charging
waves of Chinese soldiers wearing out American machine guns with their
bodies. That was one of the great shocks
of the war. There were Bonsai charges by
the Japanese during WWII, but it was nothing like this. Things have changed. It becomes much more easy to understand why
the communist leadership is so concerned about stability. They are building an aircraft carrier to
intimidate their neighbors and they keep shooting off their mouths about a lot
of things, but those are nothing more than distractions. It is my opinion that they know their economy
is shaky at best and are doing what they can to distract the people. I don’t
think it will work if there is a serious downturn in their economy and I don’t
think it will be easy to start a ruckus with their neighbors as it was during
Mao’s monstrous reign. I’m even getting
hits from China every so often, and for a while I was getting quite a few. Which means someone there has unlimited
internet access and if that is true……that means the Chinese now know….and that
changes everything.
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